Analysis: Coup debate refuses to die

To many observers, a military coup still looms on the horizon, and the question tilts toward when it would happen rather than if it would occur.

They believe the military was about to stage a coup last Friday but, for unknown reasons, decided to walk away from it at the last minute.

The timing was tantalizing. "Then Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva was on his way to Switzerland, while General Anupong Paochinda, the Army chief, was making a trip to the South," one source said.

Activities and comments coming from the the red-shirt movement helped fuel coup speculation. Natthawut Saikua, one of their leaders, kept warning that the public should keep an eye on the period between February 4 and 14 when Army Chief Gen Anupong will make an overseas trip. He said that within that 10-day period a military coup could take place.

The red shirts are particularly wary of Gen Prayuth Chan-Ocha, the deputy Army chief who has become a focus of serious speculation. Despite his denials last week, Prayuth has remained hounded by rumours that a coup leader has been designated, with preparatory measures ready to be introduced before, during and after the coup.


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